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zeb/market flash (Issue 2 – July 2012)

By Dr. Dirk Holländer, Volker Abel, Dr. Ekkehardt Bauer

09/07/2012
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zeb.market.flash provides an overview of the performance of the world’s largest banks (measured by market capitalisation). The relevant factors are briefly and concisely described, analysed and classified by our experts. For our analyses, we take a close look at relevant indicators for the valuation of the capital market, such as stock returns, as well as macroeconomic and bank-specific drivers. This issue (Q2 2012) deals with the current economic environment 2012. What’s in it for you?

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Global economic climate

Debt crisis heats up again in Q2 2012, leading to an economic downturn globally and especially in Western Europe
Greek haircut on debt in March 2012 was no sustainable solution – high Southern European refinancing needs may become decisive for the euro

Key banking drivers

Banking industry negatively affected by growing market uncertainties – most key drivers and consensus forecasts show weak performance
Latest scandals (e.g. Barclays and JP Morgan) aggravate negative sentiments

State of the banking industry

Banking industry with TSR performance of -9% in Q2 2012 and -17% in last 12 months among weakest industry sectors
Conditions for funding and capitalization remain challenging, esp. for Western European and US banks

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